Trends in solar container in the second half of the year

How will the community solar market change in 2025?

The community solar market will experience a more significant contraction, with capacity declining by 22% year-over-year in 2025, following a record year in 2024. Lastly, utility-scale installations will drop by 2% in 2025 after two solid years of growth.

How will New York's solar market perform in 2025?

New volumes in New York also declined slightly, even as the state continues to represent 52% of the total market. We expect the national community solar market to contract 22% this year, following a particularly strong 2024 for the segment. However, installed capacity in 2025 will still exceed 2023 volumes, reaching approximately 1.5 GWdc.

How much will the US solar industry contract in 2025?

The US solar industry is projected to contract by 2% annually between 2025 and 2030 in our Base case but still add nearly 43 GWdc on average each year. In the near term, solar installations will decline at an average rate of 7% from 2025 to 2027.

How did the US solar industry perform in Q1 2025?

The US solar industry installed 10.8 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of capacity in Q1 2025, a 7% decline from Q1 2024 and a 43% decrease compared with Q4 2024 but still the fourth largest quarter on record. Solar accounted for 69% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the US grid in Q1 2025.

How healthy is the community solar market?

Despite lengthening project development timelines, pipelines in key community solar state markets remain healthy, supporting the market’s health throughout our five-year outlook. Overall, we expect the national market to contract by 6% on average annually through 2030.

How does the US solar industry affect project economics?

Notably, despite the US solar industry’s reliance on domestically produced steel, market forces triggered an immediate increase in the domestic steel index. This unexpected rise has increased the production costs of tracker manufacturers, potentially affecting project economics. Additionally, US module manufacturers face increased frame costs.